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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Vermette Not A Suitable Replacement For Cullen
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Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Aug 2 @ 9:46 AM ET
Ryan Wilson: Vermette Not A Suitable Replacement For Cullen Vermette Not A Suitable Replacement For Cullen
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Aug 2 @ 9:48 AM ET
But Rinosaur says Vermette is a low risk-high reward signing.
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

Aug 2 @ 10:01 AM ET
If the NHL were still participating in the Olympics, woulda been interesting to see if some Russian hockey players had gotten banned for this year
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Aug 2 @ 10:15 AM ET
too many words, could have just summerized this blog with a hero comparison chart
Blackstrom2
Washington Capitals
Location: richmond, VA
Joined: 10.11.2010

Aug 2 @ 10:30 AM ET
Malkin gets it.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 2 @ 10:41 AM ET
I agree whole heartedly with the Eric Fehr conclusion. Eric Fehr is a much better 4C option than Varment. I actually hope that our fourth line ends up being Wilson-Fehr-Kuhnhackl.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Aug 2 @ 10:53 AM ET
Geno for President.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Aug 2 @ 12:40 PM ET
I was the first one to bring up Vermette around here yesterday...I still think I'd rather him than Sundqvist as 4C...but RW did make a point I never even thought of and that's the move to get Wilson in the lineup. I keep forgetting about Wilson. He was starting to look really good, arguably the best out of WB crew, before he went down with the injury.
Reverend Killtaker
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Alexandria, VA
Joined: 07.02.2008

Aug 2 @ 12:40 PM ET
Vermette wil now sign with someone and will perform surprisingly well. Not because I like the guy or anything, but because, RW and charts say not to.

#spitedriven
holeinone
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 07.03.2007

Aug 2 @ 1:18 PM ET
Too bad there are not more true good humans in this world We would be a whole lot better if so. Not mentioning a certain Demo running for president. Horrible human
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

Aug 2 @ 1:37 PM ET
Too bad there are not more true good humans in this world We would be a whole lot better if so. Not mentioning a certain Demo running for president. Horrible human
- holeinone



LOL at Trump responding about how he made sacrifices
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Aug 2 @ 1:44 PM ET
Too bad there are not more true good humans in this world We would be a whole lot better if so. Not mentioning a certain Demo running for president. Horrible human
- holeinone

Great post. Well thought out and on topic.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Aug 2 @ 3:05 PM ET
But Rinosaur says Vermette is a low risk-high reward signing.
- Feds91Stammer


And you accused me of trolling? Pot meet kettle.

I still stand by what I said, but he's also not necessary for the Pens; they have Fehr and a promising young player in Sundqvist. I don't even think the Pens need Cullen at this point, so yeah...

I also think that Hero chart is biased. AZ has largely played him in as a 1st or 2nd C and he's clearly not a 1st or 2nd C, so his HERO numbers SHOULD be bad.

The one problem with advanced stats is that they can be taken out of context and that's what's happening now. Paying Vermette $1M to a be a team's 4thC is a Cullen type situation. How many 4th line centers can you pay $1M and expect 30+ points?

Again, the Pens have a better player in Fehr, so they don't need him.
stowerkraut
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: He fit in the lineup like Edgar Winter in the Wu-Tang Clan, PA
Joined: 01.13.2015

Aug 2 @ 3:20 PM ET
Is it me or should the chart probably show Cullen vs. Vermette not Vermette vs. Vermette????
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Aug 2 @ 3:24 PM ET
Is it me or should the chart probably show Cullen vs. Vermette not Vermette vs. Vermette????
- stowerkraut


Well he was attempting to show the difference between two different years and if you read the fine print, it shows him in a 1st C role and a 2nd C role.

Vermette has always been a 3C, and maybe a borderline 2nd C earlier in his career. When you take a 3C and play him in a 1st C role, you're going to get the results you see in those HERO charts. Plus, when you take an aging player who's now more of a 3C/4C and play him in a 2nd C role, you're going to get those results you see.

As we've seen with Daley and Schultz, player usage is HUGE.

EDIT: Plus, comparing Cullen and Vermette's HERO charts would be inaccurate considering their roles and usage.
cranktheradio
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Greensburg, PA
Joined: 07.02.2011

Aug 2 @ 4:05 PM ET
Well he was attempting to show the difference between two different years and if you read the fine print, it shows him in a 1st C role and a 2nd C role.

Vermette has always been a 3C, and maybe a borderline 2nd C earlier in his career. When you take a 3C and play him in a 1st C role, you're going to get the results you see in those HERO charts. Plus, when you take an aging player who's now more of a 3C/4C and play him in a 2nd C role, you're going to get those results you see.

As we've seen with Daley and Schultz, player usage is HUGE.

EDIT: Plus, comparing Cullen and Vermette's HERO charts would be inaccurate considering their roles and usage.

- Rinosaur

I think Daily and Schultz are also products of a more conducive system to fit their abilities. I haven't watched vemette play in a while. Or, atleast haven't paid attention. Can he still skate well?
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Aug 2 @ 4:26 PM ET
Vermette > Sundqvist and it's not even close, at least if the goal is to have four dangerous lines. The guy put up 17 goals last year on an awful team. If Cullen's not coming back, Vermette would be a smart pickup on the cheap.

This time last year the analytical community was shouting from the rooftops that Trevor Daley sucked because of his underlying stats.

And finally, underlying stats are utterly meaningless when you're talking about players playing on teams as bad as Arizona. And comparing those underlying stats to what Matt Cullen did two years ago in Nashville is just silly.
Dcoms
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Chatham , ON
Joined: 06.22.2014

Aug 2 @ 4:28 PM ET
Top 25 Penguins under 25(last anyways, still waiting for their this years list)http://www.pensburgh.com/...ook-back-at-the-2015-list
Who's yours?
1-Dumoulin
2-Murray
3-Maatta
4-Sprong/ Shultz/ Pouliot
5-Wilson
6-Sheary
7-Rust
8-Guentzle
9-Sundqvist
10-Blueger
11-Kunhackle
12-Jarry
13-Simon
14-Bengsston
15-Prow
16-Gustavson
17- Hall
18-Jones
19-Maguire
20-Bjorkvist
21-Percy
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Aug 2 @ 4:41 PM ET
And you accused me of trolling? Pot meet kettle.

I still stand by what I said, but he's also not necessary for the Pens; they have Fehr and a promising young player in Sundqvist. I don't even think the Pens need Cullen at this point, so yeah...

I also think that Hero chart is biased. AZ has largely played him in as a 1st or 2nd C and he's clearly not a 1st or 2nd C, so his HERO numbers SHOULD be bad.

The one problem with advanced stats is that they can be taken out of context and that's what's happening now. Paying Vermette $1M to a be a team's 4thC is a Cullen type situation. How many 4th line centers can you pay $1M and expect 30+ points?

Again, the Pens have a better player in Fehr, so they don't need him.

- Rinosaur

Vermette had 16 5v5 points last year 12 of which were primary points. Please explain how you could expect 30+ points from him in a 4C role.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Aug 2 @ 4:45 PM ET
I think Daily and Schultz are also products of a more conducive system to fit their abilities. I haven't watched vemette play in a while. Or, atleast haven't paid attention. Can he still skate well?
- cranktheradio


He's an average skater.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Aug 2 @ 4:51 PM ET
Vermette had 16 5v5 points last year 12 of which were primary points. Please explain how you could expect 30+ points from him in a 4C role.
- Feds91Stammer


Again, you're comparing advanced stats of a player who's been placed in a role WAY above his pay-grade. If you took Boyle on your team and put him up as a 1st line center with average wingers you'd see his metrics drop off significantly.

He put up 38 points last year where he shouldn't. It's not far-fetched to think he could put up 30+ points in a 3rd/4th line role if used properly. The fact he's been fairly consistent throughout his career in point-production should be enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.

.5 pts per game last year
.46 pts per game the season before
.54 pts per game in the 13/14 season
.43 pts per game the 12/13

He's been pretty consistent in what to expect. In a more protected role with proper usage and lesser competition he should be able to maintain just under what he's producing now, maybe closer to 30 points with less minutes.

And... AGAIN, for probably around $1M/$1.5M he's perfect for a team on a budget. He will deliver more than what an average 4th line center would give you, but for the same price. This isn't rocket-science.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 2 @ 5:05 PM ET
Top 25 Penguins under 25(last anyways, still waiting for their this years list)http://www.pensburgh.com/...ook-back-at-the-2015-list
Who's yours?
1-Dumoulin
2-Murray
3-Maatta
4-Sprong/ Shultz/ Pouliot
5-Wilson
6-Sheary
7-Rust
8-Guentzle
9-Sundqvist
10-Blueger
11-Kunhackle
12-Jarry
13-Simon
14-Bengsston
15-Prow
16-Gustavson
17- Hall
18-Jones
19-Maguire
20-Bjorkvist
21-Percy

- Dcoms

Is this off of potential or currently best? Because if currently best Pouliot, Sprong, and Blueger are all too damn high.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

Aug 2 @ 5:07 PM ET
Vermette > Sundqvist and it's not even close, at least if the goal is to have four dangerous lines. The guy put up 17 goals last year on an awful team. If Cullen's not coming back, Vermette would be a smart pickup on the cheap.

This time last year the analytical community was shouting from the rooftops that Trevor Daley sucked because of his underlying stats.

And finally, underlying stats are utterly meaningless when you're talking about players playing on teams as bad as Arizona. And comparing those underlying stats to what Matt Cullen did two years ago in Nashville is just silly.

- hardnosed

But Fehr > Vermette and it's not even close. I'd rather have Fehr, who we're already paying play 4C and flank him with two wingers making 600-700k than pay Vermette another mil.
hardnosed
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.23.2008

Aug 2 @ 5:10 PM ET
But Fehr > Vermette and it's not even close. I'd rather have Fehr, who we're already paying play 4C and flank him with two wingers making 600-700k than pay Vermette another mil.
- Victoro311


I'd say they're about equal. I just prefer Fehr on the wing.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Aug 2 @ 5:16 PM ET
Hero chart, Malkin jock sniffing. Great stuff just really great stuff.
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